Sao Tome and Principe

Headline assessment

São Tomé and Príncipe has come out of an election quarter with its political direction still unsettled. President Carlos Vila Nova was re-elected in July. The opposition MLSTP came first in the 27 September legislative vote but fell short of a majority, and the incumbent prime minister's ADI has since signed a deal that would give it 29 of 55 seats. Growth is weak: in its June statement the IMF cut its 2026 forecast to 0.4 percent and pointed to the ongoing electricity crisis. For a new entrant, the main open questions are who forms the government, whether policy stays on the IMF programme track, and when the offshore oil contracts get signed.

Key dates before the next briefing (2027-01-10)

• 2026-10 · Production sharing contract negotiations for ultra-deepwater offshore blocks 7, 8 and 9. The national petroleum agency ANP-STP targeted October or November 2026, after the bid round closed on 30 June.

  Signing the contracts would be the clearest sign of new foreign investment this year, and a change of government could delay it.

  New Vision (citing Upstream)

• 2026-10-12 · African Energy Week in Cape Town, 12–16 October, where São Tomé and Príncipe's Natural Resources Minister is due to promote offshore exploration to investors.

  This is the first public chance to see whether the government will keep its oil licensing push going during the change of government.

  African Energy Week

Outlook

Before the next briefing, watch whether President Vila Nova appoints Ramos on the strength of the ADI–MCI-PS/PUN majority or turns to the MLSTP, and whether a contested appointment delays the 2027 budget, the IMF programme reviews or the oil contracts for blocks 7–9. We did not find published dates for central bank (BCSTP) policy meetings or for statistics office (INE) data releases in this period.