Somalia

According to UNCTAD's World Investment Report 2026, Somalia's FDI inflows reached about $834 million in 2025, up from $601 million in 2021, and the stock of FDI grew to about $7.2 billion. Foreign capital is building up slowly, but the base is small and concentrated, and in the same period the government launched a second-generation model bilateral investment treaty.

Dawan Africa (citing UNCTAD World Investment Report 2026) · 2026-08-09

The US State Department's 2026 Investment Climate Statement finds no general legal limits on foreign ownership and says the investment laws guarantee protection from unlawful expropriation, national treatment and profit repatriation, with SOMINVEST helping investors with registration and licensing. It adds that implementation is at an early stage and capacity is weak, so entrants should not count on these protections being enforced consistently across the federal government and the member states.

US Department of State · 2026-09-29

Somaliland's president has offered US investors access to Berbera port and to minerals, and has not ruled out a military base, in return for US recognition. Mogadishu considers Berbera and its resources part of Somalia, so any deal there carries political and legal risk as long as sovereignty is disputed.

Semafor · 2026-09-16

No significant developments identified in this section for the reporting period.

Aperture editorial note · 2026-10-10

An IMF Article IV mission (Nairobi, 21 Sep–1 Oct) cut Somalia's 2026 growth forecast to 2.3%, sees 2.7% in 2027 and expects inflation to rise to 6.5% this year. The IMF named further aid cuts, renewed regional conflict and worse climate shocks as major risks, so entrants should expect weaker demand in the near term and a vulnerable external position that depends heavily on remittances.

IMF Article IV concluding statement, via Channel Africa · 2026-10-05

The national statistics bureau's CPI rose 8.1% in the year to June 2026, led by restaurant and accommodation prices, with Galmudug at 12.4% and Banadir (Mogadishu) at 8.6%. Prices are well above the 2025 average, after a jump in fuel costs and disruption to Red Sea trade, so entrants should budget for higher input, transport and wage costs.

Somalia National Bureau of Statistics · 2026-07-15

The IMF projects a budget deficit of 0.9% of GDP in 2026, falling to 0.5% in 2027, kept down by spending controls. It also called for stricter customs and income-tax enforcement, one harmonised sales tax across the federal government and member states, and closer oversight of the risks from public-private partnerships. Entrants should expect tighter tax collection and more scrutiny of PPP deals.

IMF Article IV concluding statement, via Channel Africa · 2026-10-05

The US agreed to a final 12-month wind-down of the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), which supplies food, fuel, water, medical care and transport to the African Union force (AUSSOM). Sources told Reuters the period starts in January 2027 and ends with the office's closure, and Washington says it will no longer fund the office. AUSSOM underpins the government's security, so unless the AU finds other logistics or funders, the risk of security getting worse in 2027–28 rises sharply.

Reuters, via Dawan Africa · 2026-09-18

The election dispute is unresolved. No date has been set for direct national elections, parliament's March 2026 extension of terms is still contested, and on 23 September Puntland asked the UN Security Council to step in. On 24 September the president told the UN General Assembly that Somalia would hold direct elections. Disputes between the federal government and member states over legitimacy add risk to licences and contracts that need sign-off from both levels.

The Rio Times · 2026-09-27