Ethiopia

No significant developments identified in this section for the reporting period.

Aperture editorial note · 2026-10-10

In the July policy package the central bank cut the share of goods-export earnings that exporters must surrender in foreign currency from 50% to 30%. It also lowered the foreign-exchange commission rate from 2.5% to 1.5%. Export-oriented entrants keep more of their hard-currency earnings and pay less to convert, which eases one of the main operating frictions since the 2024 float.

The Reporter (Ethiopia) · 2026-07-13

On 13 July the National Bank of Ethiopia raised its policy rate from 15% to 16%, its first increase since July 2024. It also scrapped the 24% annual cap on commercial bank credit growth and replaced it with a targeted reserve requirement for banks with high loan-to-deposit ratios. The governor described the net effect as a tighter stance, so entrants should expect costlier local borrowing even though the quantitative limit on bank lending is gone.

Ethiopian News Agency / National Bank of Ethiopia MPC No. 7 · 2026-07-13

Headline inflation, as published by the Ethiopian Statistical Service, rose to 15.3% in July and was 15.1% in August, up from a single-digit low of 9.7% in December 2025. The central bank partly blames a fuel and oil-price shock and expects inflation to stay in double digits through its six-month forecast horizon, so local wage and input costs will keep rising.

Trading Economics (citing Ethiopian Statistical Service); National Bank of Ethiopia · 2026-09-08

The official birr rate was about 161.4 per US dollar on 8 October, roughly 9.5% weaker than a year earlier, after trading near 161 in early September. The managed slide continues under an IMF programme of about US$3.4 billion, of which about US$2.65 billion has been disbursed. The gap between official and parallel rates has not closed, which matters for pricing imports and repatriating profits.

Trading Economics; The Rio Times · 2026-10-08

In August and September federal forces carried out air and drone strikes in Tigray. On 20–21 September seven armed groups, including the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, formed an alliance that has said it wants to overthrow the federal government, and on 23 September Tigrayan forces seized airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire. Fighting then spread into Amhara and Afar, where at least 150,000 people have been displaced, so the northern regions are now an active war zone for logistics, staff and assets.

The Conversation; Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect · 2026-09-23

By 3 October federal and allied forces had retaken Mekelle airport and the supply hub of Alamata, and TPLF fighters were reported leaving Mekelle amid looting. Ethiopia accuses Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt of backing the rebels, which those governments deny, and the two neighbours appear to have moved forces to their shared border. Even if the fighting inside Tigray winds down, the risk of a wider interstate conflict over Red Sea access remains.

Al Jazeera; Council on Foreign Relations · 2026-10-03

On 8 October the US Embassy said fighting appeared to be concentrated north of Adigrat and north of Shire. Telecoms, mobile banking and electricity had partly resumed in Tigray but could be cut again without notice. It still advises against all travel to Amhara (including Lalibela), Tigray and Afar, so business travel, supply routes and insurance in the north will stay heavily restricted.

U.S. Embassy in Ethiopia · 2026-10-08