Portugal

Portugal's real estate sector recorded €3.9 billion in foreign investment in 2025—a 10% year-on-year increase and a new record—with property now accounting for 45.9% of total FDI inflows, the highest share ever registered according to the Banco de Portugal (BdP). Luxembourg (€1.1 billion), the United Kingdom (€900 million), and Germany (€800 million) were the leading source markets, with European investors collectively dominating the inflow base.

Idealista/news (citing Banco de Portugal) · 2026-03-12

The Portuguese government approved a National Data Centre Plan, designating data centres as a national strategic sector and assigning the Agência para o Investimento e Comércio Externo de Portugal (AICEP) as a single point of contact for investors. The plan prioritises accelerated grid connection, identification of pre-cleared strategic land parcels, and alignment with Portugal's renewable energy base to attract large-scale digital infrastructure capital.

The Portugal News · 2026-05-02

Net FDI flows into Portugal recorded a negative position of €38.05 million in March 2026 per Trading Economics data, reflecting short-term capital volatility against a backdrop of storm disruption and energy price pressure in Q1 2026. This monthly reading contrasts with the OECD-cited H1 2024 inflow figure of USD 4.1 billion, underscoring the sensitivity of monthly balance-of-payments data to cyclical shocks.

Trading Economics (citing Banco de Portugal / Eurostat) · 2026-05-22

The OECD's 2026 Economic Survey of Portugal explicitly models an assumed 15% United States tariff on Portuguese goods including steel and automobiles as a headwind to exports and private investment. The survey projects that rising trade barriers and global policy uncertainty will weigh on export performance even as strong domestic demand and Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) disbursements sustain overall GDP growth.

OECD Economic Surveys: Portugal 2026 · 2026-01-06

Portugal's Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento flagged in Brussels on 5 May 2026 that any disruption to European aviation fuel supply would constitute a significant economic shock, given that tourism—heavily dependent on air arrivals—is a critical revenue and employment sector. The minister also indicated that the TAP Air Portugal privatisation process, with Air France-KLM and Lufthansa as competing bidders, remains on track despite the current energy market uncertainty.

Lusa / AMAN Alliance · 2026-05-05

The IMF's 2026 Article IV mission concluding statement, published 6 May 2026, recommended deepening European Union single-market integration and advancing the savings and investment union as the primary levers to improve Portugal's export resilience and buffer against geo-fragmentation risk. The IMF specifically called for removing remaining intra-EU trade barriers, harmonising bankruptcy frameworks, and deepening EU energy market integration to reduce Portugal's exposure to energy price volatility.

International Monetary Fund · 2026-05-06

The European Commission's Spring 2026 Economic Forecast, published within the reporting window, projects Portuguese GDP growth at 1.7% for full-year 2026, down from 1.9% in 2025, following a near-standstill in Q1 2026 caused by severe storms and an energy price surge. The Commission forecasts headline inflation reaching 3.0% in 2026—peaking in Q2—before receding to 2.3% in 2027, with core inflation holding at 2.4% in both years.

European Commission – Economic Forecast for Portugal (Spring 2026) · 2026-05-21

Statistics Portugal (INE) released a provisional estimate showing GDP expanded 2.3% year-on-year in Q1 2026, driven primarily by domestic demand and investment, though net external demand made a negative contribution as imports outpaced exports. A detailed national accounts breakdown is scheduled for release at end-May 2026, which will provide sectoral granularity on the Q1 performance.

Portugal Pathways (citing INE) · 2026-05-05

Public debt fell from 93.5% of GDP in 2024 to 89.7% in 2025 and is forecast by the European Commission to reach 86.7% of GDP in 2026, supported by persisting primary balance surpluses and favourable growth-interest rate differentials. The general government balance is projected to shift from a 0.7% of GDP surplus in 2025 to a marginal deficit of 0.1% of GDP in 2026, reflecting storm-response expenditure and previously enacted income and corporate tax rate reductions.

European Commission – Economic Forecast for Portugal (Spring 2026) · 2026-05-21

Organic Law No. 1/2026, published in the Portuguese Official Gazette on 18 May 2026, amends the Nationality Law with immediate effect from 19 May 2026, extending the legal residency requirement for citizenship eligibility to 10 years for most nationals and 7 years for EU and Community of Portuguese Language Countries (CPLP) citizens. Pending citizenship applications as of 19 May 2026 remain governed by the prior legal framework, but market-entry professionals reliant on talent mobility pathways should reassess workforce planning timelines.

CMS Law (citing Diário da República) · 2026-05-18

Portugal's 2026 State Budget Law (Law 73-A/2025, in force from 1 January 2026) reduced the standard corporate income tax (CIT) rate to 19% from 21%, with a legislated glide path to 18% in 2027 and 17% in 2028; small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) retain a preferential 15% rate on the first €50,000 of taxable income. A VAT group consolidation regime (Law 62/2025) is scheduled to enter into force on 1 July 2026, introducing optional parent-level VAT balance consolidation with a three-year minimum commitment.

PwC Portugal Tax Summaries / Global Law Experts · 2026-05-22

Portugal faces a 7 June 2026 deadline to transpose EU Directive 2023/970 on pay transparency into national law, a requirement not yet fulfilled as of the reporting period; the incoming framework is expected to expand significantly upon existing gender pay gap obligations under Law No. 60/2018. Concurrently, the government's draft Labour Code reform—which generated a general strike in December 2025—remains under negotiation with social partners, with a revised code targeted for approval during 2026.

L&E Global · 2026-05-22