Greece

The European Commission's Spring 2026 forecast projects Greek GDP growth to moderate from 2.1% in 2025 to 1.8% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027, remaining above the EU average throughout. Investment growth is expected to remain robust in 2026, supported by a record high absorption of EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) funds, though private consumption is forecast to decelerate as an energy price shock erodes household real disposable income.

European Commission – Economic Forecast for Greece (Spring 2026) · 2026-05-21

Inflation is forecast to rise to 3.7% in 2026, driven by the sharp increase in energy prices passing through to non-energy components, before declining to 2.4% in 2027. Greece is expected to maintain fiscal surpluses over 2025–2027 despite an expansionary fiscal package, with public debt having declined from 209.4% of GDP in 2020 to 151.2% in Q2 2025.

European Commission – Economic Forecast for Greece (Spring 2026) · 2026-05-21

Tourism revenues in the first nine months of 2025 were estimated above EUR 20 billion, up 9% from 2024, supporting net trade and reinforcing Greece's role as a services-export-driven economy. The unemployment rate stood near 17-year lows at 8.6% in October 2025, with the labor market shift from part-time to full-time employment identified as a structural driver.

Allianz Trade – Greece Country Risk Report · 2026-05-22

The Greek government has secured EUR 35.9 billion in RRF funds—comprising EUR 18.2 billion in grants and EUR 17.7 billion in loans—to implement reforms in energy, labor, and digitalization through 2026, providing a structured pipeline of public investment co-investment opportunities for private market entrants. The administration's reform agenda includes widespread digitization of financial transactions and public services, as well as privatization of state-owned assets.

U.S. International Trade Administration – Greece Market Overview · 2026-05-22

Greece is positioned as an emerging regional energy hub in southeast Europe, with material investments in natural gas infrastructure, electricity grid interconnections, and renewable energy; the Floating Storage Regassification Unit (FSRU) in Alexandroupoli provides import capacity sufficient to replace 20–25% of Russian gas still consumed in southeast and central Europe with U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Prospective energy-sector entrants must now navigate the FDI screening regime, as energy is classified as a sensitive sector under Law 5202/2025.

U.S. International Trade Administration – Greece Market Overview · 2026-05-22

All major credit rating agencies have returned Greece to investment-grade sovereign debt status following 13 years of sub-investment-grade ratings, a milestone that materially reduces the cost of capital for Greek counterparties and lowers risk thresholds for institutional investors. Foreign private entities may establish various business types and handle most bureaucratic procedures digitally, with no discriminatory laws applicable against foreign investors.

Allianz Trade – Greece Country Risk Report · 2026-05-22